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Determine the average dates 50 per cent risk level for the last spring frost and the first fall frost for a selected location from the table on the next page. Temperatures in a crop are typically lower than the standard values. Actual damage depends on the temperature, crop type and crop condition. Next, use the appropriate curve, either Spring or Fall, on the figure to estimate the freezing date adjustment factor for the desired risk level.

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The Spring curve indicates the probability of the last spring frost occurring after a certain date. The Fall curve indicates the probability of the first fall frost occurring before a certain date.


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  • The two curves are derived from long-term minimum temperature records at stations representing the major agricultural regions in Alberta. Estimates from the curves are generally accurate within one or two days for the 15 per cent to 85 per cent probability range.

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    Add the freezing date adjustment factor to the average date for the probable frost date at that risk level. Estimates from the curves are generally accurate within one or two days for the 15 per cent to 85 per cent probability range.

    Add the freezing date adjustment factor to the average date for the probable frost date at that risk level. Estimate spring and fall freezing dates at Vermilion for the 25 per cent risk level The weather station closest to Vermilion is located at the Vermilion Airport.

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    From the table on the following page, the average date for the last spring frost at the Vermilion Airport is May Nine days after May 25 is June 3. Similarly, the average date for the first fall frost at the Vermilion Airport is September 9, and the freezing date adjustment factor from the Fall curve is -9 days. Nine days before September 9 is August Farm May 29 Sep. Lina June 5 Aug.